Graphs

Updated: July 12, 2009.

Safe Withdrawal Rate Theory

These graphs show the relationship between Historical Surviving Withdrawal Rates and Professor Robert Shiller's P/E10. The actual relationship is with the inverse of P/E10, the percentage earnings yield of the S&P500, 100E10/P.

HSWR50T2 Graph

Here is a graph of HSWR50T2 30-Year Historical Surviving Withdrawal Rates HSWR versus the percentage earnings yield 100E10/P. It has a 50% fixed allocation.

HSWR50T2 Graph

HSWR80T2 Graph

Here is a graph of HSWR80T2 30-Year Historical Surviving Withdrawal Rates HSWR versus the percentage earnings yield 100E10/P. It has an 80% fixed allocation.

HSWR80T2 Graph

Switching Graphs

Here are graphs of Switching A and Switching B 30-Year Historical Surviving Withdrawal Rates HSWR versus the percentage earnings yield 100E10/P. These have allocations that depend on P/E10, Professor Robert Shiller's measure of valuations.

Switching Graphs

You can learn how to do better than Switching A and Switching B by practicing on the Scenario Surfer. For a good introduction to the key concepts, listen to Rob Bennett’s RobCast#12:

Podcast #12 (56 minutes) -- September 19, 2008 -- Market Timing -- What Works and What Doesn't

Rob Bennett’s RobCast page 2

Gummy Slices

These are two graphs extracted from my Gummy Slices series of articles. They show that slices and composite portfolios both respond to Professor Shiller’s P/E10. They show that rebalancing is inferior to not rebalancing.

Gummy Slices Graphs

Dividend Theory

These graphs show the critical relationships behind dividend investment theory.

S&P500 Dividend Theory

Retirees can gain confidence by examining the history of S&P500 dividends. Dividend strategies are safe and sound. The downside risk is a temporary income drop less than 10% (nominal).

This has two graphs that tell the dividend story.

S&P500 Dividend Theory

Dividend Slices Graphs

These are the graphs from Current Research K: Dividend Slices.

Dividend Slices Graphs

Rebalancing or NOT Graphs

Here are graphs of 30-Year Historical Surviving Withdrawal Rates HSWR with 50% and 80% stocks with and without rebalancing versus the percentage earnings yield 100E10/P.

Rebalancing or NOT Graphs

Here are graphs of the Rebalancing Bonus at Years 10, 20 and 30. Most often, it costs you money.

Rebalancing Bonus at Year 10
Rebalancing Bonus at Year 20
Rebalancing Bonus at Year 30

SWR Translator Graphs

Here are SWR Translator graphs. They show 30-Year Historical Surviving Withdrawal Rates HSWR versus the portfolio’s total return at Years 6, 10 and 14.

SWR Translator Graphs
SWR Translator Graph with Lines

Sensitivity Studies and the Reality Checker Addendum

This looks at the number of runs with the Reality Checker prototype.

I have renamed the Reality Checker. It is now the Investment Strategy Tester.

Sensitivity Studies and the Reality Checker Addendum

DVY Dividends

These charts show DVY quarterly dividend amounts since March 2004.

DVY Dividends

Real, Annualized, Total Returns versus Valuations

Here are the returns in terms of the percentage earnings yield 100E10/P.

Year 10 Real Return
Year 20 Real Return
Year 30 Real Return

Here are the returns in terms of P/E10. These have better fits within the region of applicability.

Year 10 P/E10 Real Return
Year 20 P/E10 Real Return
Year 30 P/E10 Real Return

Here are the returns in terms of P/E10 over the entire data period.

Year 10 P/E10 Full Data
Year 20 P/E10 Full Data
Year 30 P/E10 Full Data
Year 40 P/E10 Full Data
Year 50 P/E10 Full Data
Year 60 P/E10 Full Data