Short Posts starting from November 16, 2008

Updated: May 28, 2009.

Stock Buybacks

I don’t like stock buyback. This is why.

Stock Buybacks

Comfortable with $300K

Has your nest egg fallen in half, from $600K to $300K? Even if so, you will be able to retire in comfort. Depending upon your situation, this could be today or it might take a decade, but not longer.

Comfortable with $300K

Reasonably Safe, Not Safe

I have repeated attempted to withdraw 6% (plus inflation) for 60 years using a traditional liquidation strategy in today’s market. All of my attempts have failed. They have been Reasonably Safe.

Reasonably Safe, Not Safe

6% and Safety

A 60-year Safe Withdrawal Rate of 6% (plus inflation) using a liquidation strategy is too much to ask for at today’s prices.

6% and Safety

Turning Points G

I combined my Turning Points E and F data. I calculated the likely range of stock market cycle periods. It comes close to what we have seen in the past.

Turning Points G

For Today’s Accumulators

I looked at dollar cost averaging for today’s accumulators.

For Today’s Accumulators

Invest Early

Should we wait for a stock market bottom? Not always. Sometimes it pays to invest early.

Invest Early

Risk

Risk is the hidden flaw. It is not volatility.

Risk

Idiot Switching in a P/E10=14 Bear Market

I examined a series of single threshold allocations shifts between 100% and 0%. I refer to this as Idiot Switching. It has merit at times of high valuations.

Idiot Switching in a P/E10=14 Bear Market

Was It Or Wasn’t It?

Was the run up in the late 1990s a Black Swan event? How about the October 2008 meltdown?

Was It Or Wasn’t It?

The Safe Withdrawal Rate Solution

We now know the solution to the Safe Withdrawal Rate problem.

The Safe Withdrawal Rate Solution

Statistical Lessons Learned

Here are some of my key findings regarding statistical estimates.

Statistical Lessons Learned