General Topics

The Best Allocations versus Time

Learn about the Best Allocations versus Time. The data tell us things that differ from the traditional advice.
The Best Allocations versus Time

Numbers for Transition Planning

Preserving capital becomes more and more important as you approach retirement.
Numbers for Transition Planning

High Risk at 4%? at 5%?

Normally, I discuss Safe Withdrawal Rates. This time, I will look at the exact opposite: the High Risk Withdrawal Rate.
High Risk at 4%? at 5%?

Calculated Rates of the Last Decade

Safe, Calculated and High Risk Rates for the last decade.
Calculated Rates of the Last Decade

TIPS versus Dividends

Today’s stock valuations are sky high. I expect stock prices to fall substantially, but I don’t know when. What should a new retiree do? How about some TIPS and dividend-based strategies?
TIPS versus Dividends

Faster and Easier SWR Calculations

We can take advantage of linearity to speed up data collection and enhance data analysis. This is a dramatic improvement. Here are the details.
Faster and Easier SWR Calculations

Post Script to Faster and Easier SWR Calculations

My new approach is much faster, but the original method is more accurate.
Post Script to Faster and Easier SWR Calculations

Faster and Easier SWR Calculations: Excursion

My intent was to learn about the nature of errors using this alternative procedure.
Faster and Easier SWR Calculations: Excursion

Safe Withdrawal Rates with Switching

When I made my surveys to optimize switching, I failed to follow through by calculating Safe Withdrawal Rates. Here are the numbers.
Safe Withdrawal Rates with Switching

Safe Withdrawal Rates with Switching Data

Here are the raw data.
Safe Withdrawal Rates with Switching Data

Portfolio Lifetimes with Switching

Varying stock allocations in accordance with P/E10 dramatically decreases the sensitivity of portfolio lifetimes to withdrawal rates.
Portfolio Lifetimes with Switching

SWR Costs

I compare several investment approaches by looking at their Safe Withdrawal Rates.
SWR Costs

Historical Context

Looking at the 1966-1981 secular [long lasting] bear market helps us appreciate why a buy-and-hold and S&P500 index fund is no longer a good idea.
Historical Context

Design Calculations

Here are some designs for 40-year and 50-year retirement portfolios. We are still in the early stages of doing this.
Design Calculations

Equations for Design

These are equations that we use repeatedly when we design our retirement portfolios.
Equations for Design

S&P500 Returns

Here are the annualized, real, total returns of the S&P500 index. Notice that the 10-year returns were negative in 1965-1973. In addition, the 30-year return was between 4.0% and 5.0% in 1952, 1955-1957 and 1959-1966.
S&P500 Returns

Speculative Return

The return from the stock market can be broken into two parts: the investment return and the speculative return.
Speculative Return

Should You Buy an Annuity?

Annuities can make a lot of sense for traditional retirees. They make much less sense for younger retirees.
Should You Buy an Annuity?