New Posts

These are our most recent posts starting from September 2005.

I Don’t Want to Wait, But..

You have read I Don’t Want to Wait. You like what it says. But it requires P/E10 = 8.7. Maybe, that is too optimistic.

How about P/E10 = 12?

If you have a relatively modest $260K and if you decide to wait ten years, you can look forward to receiving an annual income stream of $20K (plus inflation). This makes an excellent supplement to social security and/or pension income.
I Don’t Want to Wait, But..

A Negative Risk Premium Makes Sense

In today’s environment, it makes sense for you to be charged a premium when you buy stocks.
A Negative Risk Premium Makes Sense

Buy-and-Hold Projections

I have constructed tables from the equations in You Can't Count on 7% to assist buy-and-hold investors.
Buy-and-Hold Projections

Here are tables with the projected stock market returns in dollars for 1995-2005 at 10, 20 and 30 years.
Buy-and-Hold Dollar Projections

Valuations and Dividend-Based Strategies

Valuations affect Dividend-Based Strategies. Everyone is aware that prices affect yields. But they do more. They affect multiples.

The change in the speculative return caused by price changes is larger than the change in dividend yields.
Valuations and Dividend-Based Strategies

Dividends and True Buy-and-Hold Investing

We are making excellent progress with the True Buy-and-Hold concept. I have just recently investigated dividend-based strategies.
Dividends and True Buy-and-Hold Investing

Withdrawal Rates at Favorable Valuations

We can expect stocks to return to favorable valuations in approximately ten years. Here are 30-year withdrawal rates for all of the portfolios in Equations for Design using P/E10 = 8, 10 and 12.
Withdrawal Rates at Favorable Valuations

Ridiculous Pessimism

Rob Bennett sent me an article from Barrons: Can You Afford to Retire? Don't accept the mathematics. Only in a very narrow sense do the numbers come close to telling us the truth.
Ridiculous Pessimism

Addendum to Ridiculous Pessimism

Here are some additional reflections.
Addendum to Ridiculous Pessimism

None Dare Call it Skill

The fact is that, if you can gain a consistent advantage, you have skill.
None Dare Call it Skill

Gradually Increasing Bond Allocations: HSWR

The traditional advice to investors is to increase bond allocations as they age. Here is what happens to Safe Withdrawal Rates.
Gradually Increasing Bond Allocations: HSWR

Gradually Increasing Bond Allocations: Returns

The traditional advice to investors is to increase bond allocations as they age. Here is what happens to 10, 20 and 30-year real, annualized total returns.
Gradually Increasing Bond Allocations: Returns

Gradually Increasing Bond Allocations: Returns Addendum

I have added 15-year bond ladders.
Gradually Increasing Bond Allocations: Returns Addendum

Do All Really Bad Price Drops Happen at Times of High Valuations?

This is the right way to phrase the question.
Do All Really Bad Price Drops Happen at Times of High Valuations?

Links to Earlier New Posts

Here is a link to the New Posts section from before September 7, 2005.
Link to Pre Sept 7, 2005 New Posts