Turning Points E

I looked at a P/E10=26 Bear Market. I collected more turning point statistics. I focused on when we will hit bottom.

Scenario Surfer Conditions

I set the Scenario Surfer to a P/E10=26 Bear Market. I determined how P/E10 varied over the next 30 years.

Turning Points Data

Run 1.
P/E10 below 16.0:
Value: 14.0
Year: 1
Lowest P/E10 by Year 20:
Value: 14.0
Year: 1
Lowest P/E10 by Year 30:
Value: 14.0
Year: 1

Run 2.
P/E10 below 16.0:
Value: 15.1
Year: 8
Lowest P/E10 by Year 20:
Value: 12.2
Year: 18
Lowest P/E10 by Year 30:
Value: 9.3
Year: 25

Run 3.
P/E10 below 16.0:
Value: 14.0
Year: 2
Lowest P/E10 by Year 20:
Value: 9.7
Year: 8
Lowest P/E10 by Year 30:
Value: 8.6
Year: 23

Run 4.
P/E10 below 16.0:
Value: 14.5
Year: 2
Lowest P/E10 by Year 20:
Value: 5.6
Year: 15
Lowest P/E10 by Year 30:
Value: 5.6
Year: 15

Run 5.
P/E10 below 16.0:
Value: 11.4
Year: 3
Lowest P/E10 by Year 20:
Value: 10.4
Year: 15
Lowest P/E10 by Year 30:
Value: 6.5
Year: 23

Run 6.
P/E10 below 16.0:
Value: 14.4
Year: 2
Lowest P/E10 by Year 20:
Value: 10.4
Year: 15
Lowest P/E10 by Year 30:
Value: 10.4
Year: 15

Run 7.
P/E10 below 16.0:
Value: 14.9
Year: 9
Lowest P/E10 by Year 20:
Value: 12.0
Year: 20
Lowest P/E10 by Year 30:
Value: 12.0
Year: 20

Run 8.
P/E10 below 16.0:
Value: 14.4
Year: 2
Lowest P/E10 by Year 20:
Value: 8.4
Year: 11
Lowest P/E10 by Year 30:
Value: 8.4
Year: 11

Run 9.
P/E10 below 16.0:
Value: 11.1
Year: 4
Lowest P/E10 by Year 20:
Value: 6.7
Year: 19
Lowest P/E10 by Year 30:
Value: 6.7
Year: 19

Run 10.
P/E10 below 16.0:
Value: 13.7
Year: 7
Lowest P/E10 by Year 20:
Value: 10.0
Year: 10
Lowest P/E10 by Year 30:
Value: 10.0
Year: 10

Run 11.
P/E10 below 16.0:
Value: 13.2
Year: 6
Lowest P/E10 by Year 20:
Value: 8.4
Year: 10
Lowest P/E10 by Year 30:
Value: 8.4
Year: 10

Run 12.
P/E10 below 16.0:
Value: 14.9
Year: 3
Lowest P/E10 by Year 20:
Value: 4.5
Year: 14
Lowest P/E10 by Year 30:
Value: 4.5
Year: 14

Run 13.
P/E10 below 16.0:
Value: 14.6
Year: 6
Lowest P/E10 by Year 20:
Value: 8.8
Year: 11
Lowest P/E10 by Year 30:
Value: 8.8
Year: 11

Run 14.
P/E10 below 16.0:
Value: 15.0
Year: 8
Lowest P/E10 by Year 20:
Value: 11.0
Year: 9
Lowest P/E10 by Year 30:
Value: 11.0
Year: 9

Run 15.
P/E10 below 16.0:
Value: 12
Year: 5
Lowest P/E10 by Year 20:
Value: 11.5
Year: 6
Lowest P/E10 by Year 30:
Value: 11.5
Year: 6

Run 16.
P/E10 below 16.0:
Value: 14.1
Year: 11
Lowest P/E10 by Year 20:
Value: 7.1
Year: 18
Lowest P/E10 by Year 30:
Value: 7.1
Year: 18

Run 17.
P/E10 below 16.0:
Value: 15.2
Year: 8
Lowest P/E10 by Year 20:
Value: 11.0
Year: 9
Lowest P/E10 by Year 30:
Value: 11.0
Year: 9

Run 18.
P/E10 below 16.0:
Value: 11.8
Year: 4
Lowest P/E10 by Year 20:
Value: 9.4
Year: 19
Lowest P/E10 by Year 30:
Value: 7.5
Year: 29

Run 19.
P/E10 below 16.0:
Value: 13.8
Year: 10
Lowest P/E10 by Year 20:
Value: 11.5
Year: 14
Lowest P/E10 by Year 30:
Value: 11.5
Year: 14

Run 20.
P/E10 below 16.0:
Value: 12.4
Year: 10
Lowest P/E10 by Year 20:
Value: 10.2
Year: 12
Lowest P/E10 by Year 30:
Value: 10.2
Year: 12

Data Summary

Years for P/E10 to fall below 16.0: 5.6 average (5.5 median); 1 minimum; 11 maximum.

Years between P/E10 below 16.0 and P/E10 minimum at Year 20: 7.2 average (6.5 median); 0 minimum; 15 maximum.

Years between P/E10 below 16.0 and P/E10 minimum at Year 30: 9.2 average (8.0 median); 0 minimum; 25 maximum.

P/E10 minimum by Year 20: 9.6 average (10.1 median); 4.5 minimum; 14.0 maximum.

P/E10 minimum by Year 30: 9.2 average (9.1 median); 4.5 minimum; 14.0 maximum.

Data Analysis

The Year 20 data place the market bottom between now and 2023, with the most likely year being 2015. The most likely range is between 2 and 11 years from 2008. That is, the most likely 50% of the data fall between 2010 and 2019.

This wide range of outcomes is consistent with predictions based on demographics, which place the bottom between 2012 and 2020.

The bottom is likely to have a P/E10 value close to 10. We may have seen the bottom already. We could even set a new record at P/E10=4.5. The likely range (inner 50% probability) is P/E10=8.4 and 11.0.

Have fun.

John Walter Russell
February 21, 2009